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Week Ahead: Biden talks turkey

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Or, if you are American, a mostly working week. The US is preparing for the Thanksgiving Day celebrations, so expect the traditional run of travel chaos and road gridlock stories in the days leading up to the national holiday on Thursday. Then prepare for the economic analysis of the Black Friday sales figures the day afterwards.

After a week or so of international summits, President Joe Biden will be forced to talk turkey with a turkey (rather than other world leaders) this Monday as he undertakes the traditional pardoning of the holiday season fowl — of course, others may choose to save a turkey due to escalating costs.

Across the Atlantic, where the avian flu nightmare before Christmas for British festive poultry farmers is getting worse, the big constitutional event is the Supreme Court’s ruling — due on Wednesday — about whether the Scottish parliament can call a second independence referendum without the approval of the UK’s Westminster government.

Scottish National party leader Nicola Sturgeon, who somewhat ironically has the first referendum failure to thank for getting the job as first minister because it forced the resignation of her predecessor Alex Salmond, has upped the stakes by bidding for IndyRef2. The expectation is that the court will rule against Sturgeon’s proposal, which some claim is her real aim because it will fuel the nationalist sense of grievance against Westminster ahead of the general election, due in the next two years.

British business leaders will be able to have their say about UK politics at the CBI conference, which starts on Monday in Birmingham. Speakers include a “senior cabinet minister”, John Lewis Partnership chair Sharon White and BT Group chief executive Philip Jansen.

Oh yes, and there is some more football being played. Click for the FT’s comprehensive Qatar coverage.

How is your week looking? Need more information? Hit reply to the newsletter or email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com

Economic data

The G7 flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports are the highlight of a light statistical schedule, thanks in large part to Thanksgiving. Also, the OECD updates its economic outlook forecasts on Tuesday.

Rate setting intentions will be in the news again with the November Federal Open Market Committee minutes showing just how opinions are changing among the US central bankers. Rate hikes are expected in South Korea, forecast to rise by 25 basis points, and South Africa, where a 75 basis point increase is forecast. Turkey bucks this trend with an expected jumbo drop of 150 basis points.

Companies

Just in time for the biggest retail event of the US calendar, we have a clutch of earnings from US and UK retailers Best Buy, Abercrombie & Fitch, Halfords, Pets at Home and Mothercare.

Ingka Group, which owns most of the Ikea stores worldwide, reports full-year figures on Thursday, which will include profits for the home furnishing retailer.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • China, monthly interest rate decision

  • Germany, October producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

  • Hong Kong, October consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

  • Thailand, Q3 GDP figures

  • Results: Agilent Technologies Q4, Compass Group FY, Urban Outfitters Q3, Virgin Money FY, Zoom Q3

Tuesday

  • Canada, monthly retail sales figures

  • EU, eurozone November consumer confidence survey data

  • Hungary, monthly monetary policy committee rate-setting meeting

  • Nigeria, monthly monetary policy committee rate-setting meeting

  • OECD’s latest Economic Outlook, containing projections for the world economy

  • UK, public sector net borrowing figures

  • Results: Abercrombie & Fitch Q3, Analog Devices Q4, AO World H1, Babcock International H1, Best Buy Q3, CRH trading update, Dollar Tree Q3, Homeserve H1, HP Q4, Medtronic Q2, Nordstrom Q3, Severn Trent H1, Warner Music Group Q4

Wednesday

  • Australia, EU, France, UK, US: S&P Global manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

  • New Zealand, monthly monetary policy committee rate-setting meeting

  • South Africa, October CPI inflation rate data

  • Sweden, monthly monetary policy committee meeting

  • US, Federal Open Market Committee’s November meeting minutes published. Plus, new home sales data.

  • Results: Britvic FY, De La Rue H1, Deere & Co Q4, Halfords FY, Johnson Matthey H1, Naspers H1, Mothercare H1, Pets at Home H1, Prosus H1, United Utilities H1

Thursday

  • EU, European Central Bank monetary policy meeting account

  • France, November business confidence data

  • Germany, Ifo business climate survey

  • Japan, November manufacturing and services PMI data

  • Singapore, October CPI inflation rate data

  • South Africa, monthly monetary policy committee rate-setting meeting

  • South Korea, monthly monetary policy committee rate-setting meeting

  • Turkey, interest rate decision

  • UK, CBI industrial trends survey

  • Results: Dr Martens H1, Ingka Group FY, Jet2 H1, Kingfisher Q3 trading update, Rémy Cointreau H1

Friday

  • France, November consumer confidence data

  • Germany, GfK consumer climate survey and Q3 GDP figures

  • Japan, November CPI and PPI inflation rate data

  • Malaysia, October CPI inflation rate data

  • Spain, October PPI inflation rate data

  • Sweden, October PPI inflation rate data

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

Tuesday

  • Cyprus, University of Nicosia hosts a meetup with Changpeng Zhao (CZ), chief executive of Binance. Notable given the turmoil in the cryptocurrency market following the collapse of rival FTX.

  • Mexico, Mariachi bands perform to celebrate the feast day of Santa Cecilia, patron saint of musicians

Wednesday

  • UK, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa arrives in London for a state visit, the first time King Charles III has hosted such an event as monarch

  • UK, Supreme Court judgment due on case of whether the Scottish parliament can call a second referendum on independence without the approval of the UK government

Thursday

  • UK, Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London, including keynote speeches from deputy BoE governor Dave Ramsden and European Central Bank executive board member Isabel Schnabel

  • US, Thanksgiving Day public holiday

Friday

  • UK, 70th anniversary of Agatha Christie’s The Mousetrap, the world’s longest running theatre play, opening at the Ambassadors Theatre in London

  • US, Traditional Black Friday sales day begin when retailers attempt to sell so much that their results for the year go into the black. Also, the 20th anniversary Department of Homeland Security being created.

Saturday

  • Egypt, centenary of British Egyptologist Howard Carter and his employer Lord Carnarvon entering the tomb of Tutankhamun in Luxor

  • Taiwan, local mayoral elections

  • UK, national rail strike by train drivers affiliated to the Aslef union, across 12 operating companies, in an ongoing dispute over pay

Sunday

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